升级 Trellis 并完成项目审查（07-26-trellis-upgrade-project-audit）

.agents/skills/trellis-break-loop/SKILL.md

@@ -111,6 +111,64 @@ Three levels of insight:
 
 30 minutes of analysis saves 30 hours of future debugging.
 
+## Thinking Framework: Bayesian Reasoning
+
+When multiple root causes are plausible and evidence is incomplete, update your beliefs proportionally to new evidence rather than clinging to initial assumptions.
+
+### Step 1: Establish Priors
+
+Before investigating, state what you believe and why:
+
+| Hypothesis | Prior | Reasoning |
+|------------|-------|-----------|
+| H1: [cause A] | 40% | Most common for this pattern |
+| H2: [cause B] | 30% | Plausible given environment |
+| H3: [other] | 30% | Catch-all |
+
+Priors must sum to 100%. If you can't assign probabilities, investigate first.
+
+### Step 2: Observe Evidence
+
+Document what you found — be specific about reliability:
+
+- What exactly did you observe?
+- How reliable? (test output > log message > user report > hunch)
+- Could multiple hypotheses explain this?
+
+### Step 3: Update Beliefs
+
+For each hypothesis, ask: **How likely is this evidence if this hypothesis were true?**
+
+Direction of update matters more than calculation:
+- Evidence strongly predicted by H1 → H1 probability increases
+- Evidence contradicts H2 → H2 probability decreases
+- Evidence equally likely under all → no update
+
+### Step 4: Seek Discriminating Evidence
+
+Don't gather more of the same. Find evidence that **differs strongly** between top hypotheses.
+
+> If H1 and H3 are close: "What would I see if H1 is true but not if H3 is true?" Then check for that.
+
+### Step 5: State Confidence
+
+| Confidence | Action |
+|------------|--------|
+| 90%+ | Proceed with fix, monitor |
+| 70-90% | Proceed, add fallback check |
+| 50-70% | Test hypothesis before committing |
+| <50% | Need more evidence, don't guess |
+
+Never express binary certainty when evidence is incomplete. Use "most likely", "plausible but unlikely", "worth investigating".
+
+### Common Fallacies
+
+| Fallacy | Example | Correction |
+|---------|---------|------------|
+| **Base rate neglect** | "Test failed → code is broken" | How often do tests fail for other reasons? |
+| **Confirmation bias** | "Must be a race condition, let me find race evidence" | Actively seek evidence AGAINST your top hypothesis |
+| **Anchoring** | "Last time it was caching, probably caching again" | Establish priors from current context, not yesterday's bug |
+
 ---
 
 ## After Analysis: Immediate Actions